Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Sudan

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does the Sudan produce?

The Sudan produced 0.23% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 108m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented an increase from 2020 by 1.9%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have increased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% and the Sudan has contributed 0.22% of global greenhouse emissions.

In 2021, the Sudan was the world’s 46th largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time the Sudan is the 51st largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in The Sudan – average household carbon footprint

The population of the Sudan is 44.9m. On a per capita basis, they produce 2.4 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 135th out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkmenistan.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the Sudan?

Gases

19.9% of emissions in the Sudan came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 51.6% came from Methane (CH4), and 27.3% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the agriculture industry, producing 76.8m of GHG emissions, constituting 71.3% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were energy and land-use change and forestry, producing 22.5% and 19.5% of total GHG in the Sudan.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the transportation industry, producing 12.3m of GHG emissions, constituting 11.4% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were electricity/heat and building, emitting 4.74m and 3.09m tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

• Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
• On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of the Sudan, LUCF had a negative impact on the Sudan’s emissions, increasing their carbon footprint by 21m tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the Sudan in 2021 was 129m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is the Sudan to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

The Sudan scores 32.8 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘high vulnerability and low readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

High vulnerability and low readiness in the Sudan

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, The Sudan ranks in the bottom 10% group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with the Sudan posting a score of 0.261.

They show the greatest strength in economic aspects, while their performance in governance aspects requires improvement.

• Economic readiness refers to the business environment and its capacity to adapt to climate change, emphasizing the importance of a supportive regulatory framework for adaptation initiatives.
• Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, The Sudan falls into the bottom 5% category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, the Sudan has a score of 0.604.

Their resilience is most notable in infrastructure areas, yet they face significant challenges in water.

• Infrastructure vulnerability refers to the weaknesses in the coastal protection, transportation, and energy systems, which are critical for building resilience against climate change. Coastal protection safeguards land and ports from rising sea levels and storms. Reliable transportation infrastructure is essential for corporate value chains and can be disrupted by extreme weather. Energy infrastructure resilience ensures a continuous supply of energy during natural disasters, maintaining economic stability.
• Water vulnerability refers to the availability and reliability of water resources, critical for economies and livelihoods. Efficient water use and resilient systems are essential as climate change affects precipitation patterns.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

• The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
• The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
• The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
• Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in the Sudan?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Sudan grew by 26.6% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $27bn to $34.2bn. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 1.9%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP declined -56.3%, while emissions increased by 12.8%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in the Sudan over the past ten years was -8%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was 1.2%.