Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Libya

Overview of greenhouse gases and emissions per capita in Libya. Are they prepared to meet net zero targets and invest in the energy transition?
Published:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Libya
Overview of greenhouse gases and emissions per capita in Libya. Are they prepared to meet net zero targets and invest in the energy transition?
Published:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Libya
Overview of greenhouse gases and emissions per capita in Libya. Are they prepared to meet net zero targets and invest in the energy transition?
Published:

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does Libya produce?

Libya produced 0.23% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 109m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented an increase from 2020 by 51%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have increased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2% and Libya has contributed 0.25% of global greenhouse emissions.

CountryLibya
Population6.96m
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in USD$41.9bn
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2021109m
Change in Emissions since 202051%
Percentage of Total Emissions (2021)0.23%
Rank – Emitters in 202145
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions since 19903.06bn
Compound Annual Growth – Emissions since 19901.2%
Percentage of Total Emissions (1990-2021)0.25%
GDP Per Capita (USD)$6.02k
Emissions Per Capita15.6

In 2021, Libya was the world’s 45th largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time Libya is the 46th largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in Libya – average household carbon footprint

The population of Libya is 6.96m. On a per capita basis, they produce 15.6 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 18th out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkmenistan.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Libya?

Gases

49.1% of emissions in Libya came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 44.3% came from Methane (CH4), and 1.6% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the energy industry, producing 97.1m of GHG emissions, constituting 89.3% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were industrial processes and agriculture, producing 6.4% and 2.7% of total GHG in Libya.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the fugitive emissions industry, producing 55.3m of GHG emissions, constituting 50.8% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were electricity/heat and transportation, emitting 21.4m and 17.4m tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

  • Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
  • Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
  • On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of Libya, LUCF had no impact on Libya’s emissions, decreasing their carbon footprint by 0 tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Libya in 2021 was 109m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is Libya to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

Libya scores 43 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘low vulnerability and low readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

  1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
  2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Low vulnerability and low readiness in Libya

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, Libya ranks in the bottom 25% group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with Libya posting a score of 0.281.

They show the greatest strength in economic aspects, while their performance in governance aspects requires improvement.

  • Economic readiness refers to the business environment and its capacity to adapt to climate change, emphasizing the importance of a supportive regulatory framework for adaptation initiatives.
  • Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, Libya falls into the above average category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, Libya has a score of 0.421.

Their resilience is most notable in infrastructure areas, yet they face significant challenges in ecosystems.

  • Infrastructure vulnerability refers to the weaknesses in the coastal protection, transportation, and energy systems, which are critical for building resilience against climate change. Coastal protection safeguards land and ports from rising sea levels and storms. Reliable transportation infrastructure is essential for corporate value chains and can be disrupted by extreme weather. Energy infrastructure resilience ensures a continuous supply of energy during natural disasters, maintaining economic stability.
  • Ecosystem services refers to the natural capital and resources foundational to economies and societies. Climate change-induced shifts in geoclimes stress ecosystems, highlighting the need for adaptive responses.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

  • The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
  • The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
  • The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
  • Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Libya?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in Libya declined by -15% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $46.8bn to $39.8bn. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 51%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP declined -17.4%, while emissions increased by 62.6%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in Libya over the past ten years was -1.9%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was 5%.

Sources

World Resources Institute, 2022. Climate Watch Historical GHG Emissions. [online] Washington, DC. Available at: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions.

Global Carbon Project, 2023. Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2023 (Version 1.1) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. Available at: https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2023.

UNFCCC, 2023. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data. [online] Available at: https://di.unfccc.int.

Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, 2023. ND-GAIN Country Index. [online] Available at: https://gain.nd.edu.

FAO, 2022. Land-Use Change and Forestry or Agriculture indicators from FAOSTAT Emissions Database. [online] Available at: https://www.fao.org/faostat/.

OECD/IEA, 2022. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. [online] Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022.

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