Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Estonia

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does Estonia produce?

Estonia produced 0.02% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 11.4m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented an increase from 2020 by 12.2%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have decreased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4% and Estonia has contributed 0.05% of global greenhouse emissions.

In 2021, Estonia was the world’s 136th largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time Estonia is the 114th largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in Estonia – average household carbon footprint

The population of Estonia is 1.33m. On a per capita basis, they produce 8.6 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 42nd out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkmenistan.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia?

Gases

72.8% of emissions in Estonia came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 9.5% came from Methane (CH4), and 16.2% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the energy industry, producing 8.69m of GHG emissions, constituting 76.3% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were land-use change and forestry and agriculture, producing 40.7% and 20.3% of total GHG in Estonia.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the electricity/heat industry, producing 5.02m of GHG emissions, constituting 44.1% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were transportation and building, emitting 2.45m and 560k tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

• Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
• On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of Estonia, LUCF had a negative impact on Estonia’s emissions, increasing their carbon footprint by 4.64m tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia in 2021 was 16m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is Estonia to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

Estonia scores 64 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘low vulnerability and high readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Low vulnerability and high readiness in Estonia

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, Estonia ranks in the top 25% group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with Estonia posting a score of 0.62.

They show the greatest strength in governance aspects, while their performance in social aspects requires improvement.

• Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.
• Social readiness refers to the societal factors like inequality, education, and technology infrastructure that affect a country’s ability to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, Estonia falls into the top 25% category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, Estonia has a score of 0.34.

Their resilience is most notable in infrastructure areas, yet they face significant challenges in habitat.

• Infrastructure vulnerability refers to the weaknesses in the coastal protection, transportation, and energy systems, which are critical for building resilience against climate change. Coastal protection safeguards land and ports from rising sea levels and storms. Reliable transportation infrastructure is essential for corporate value chains and can be disrupted by extreme weather. Energy infrastructure resilience ensures a continuous supply of energy during natural disasters, maintaining economic stability.
• Human habitat refers to the growth of cities and their capacity to withstand climate change impacts like floods and heatwaves. Improved infrastructure enhances urban resilience to extreme weather events.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

• The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
• The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
• The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
• Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Estonia?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in Estonia grew by 18.6% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $31.4bn to $37.2bn. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 12.2%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP grew 60.2%, while emissions decreased by -47.3%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in Estonia over the past ten years was 4.8%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was -6.2%.