Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ukraine

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does Ukraine produce?

Ukraine produced 0.48% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 225m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented a decrease from 2020 by -0.3%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have decreased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.1% and Ukraine has contributed 1% of global greenhouse emissions.

In 2021, Ukraine was the world’s 34th largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time Ukraine is the 19th largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in Ukraine – average household carbon footprint

The population of Ukraine is 43.8m. On a per capita basis, they produce 5.1 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 89th out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkmenistan.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine?

Gases

72.8% of emissions in Ukraine came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 13.5% came from Methane (CH4), and 13.2% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the energy industry, producing 167m of GHG emissions, constituting 74.2% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were agriculture and waste, producing 14.6% and 6.6% of total GHG in Ukraine.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the electricity/heat industry, producing 77.5m of GHG emissions, constituting 34.4% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were manufacturing/construction and transportation, emitting 33.9m and 26m tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

• Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
• On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of Ukraine, LUCF had a positive impact on Ukraine’s emissions, decreasing their carbon footprint by 3.2m tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine in 2021 was 222m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is Ukraine to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

Ukraine scores 53.3 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘low vulnerability and high readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Low vulnerability and high readiness in Ukraine

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, Ukraine ranks in the below average group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with Ukraine posting a score of 0.428.

They show the greatest strength in social aspects, while their performance in governance aspects requires improvement.

• Social readiness refers to the societal factors like inequality, education, and technology infrastructure that affect a country’s ability to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
• Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, Ukraine falls into the top 25% category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, Ukraine has a score of 0.363.

Their resilience is most notable in infrastructure areas, yet they face significant challenges in habitat.

• Infrastructure vulnerability refers to the weaknesses in the coastal protection, transportation, and energy systems, which are critical for building resilience against climate change. Coastal protection safeguards land and ports from rising sea levels and storms. Reliable transportation infrastructure is essential for corporate value chains and can be disrupted by extreme weather. Energy infrastructure resilience ensures a continuous supply of energy during natural disasters, maintaining economic stability.
• Human habitat refers to the growth of cities and their capacity to withstand climate change impacts like floods and heatwaves. Improved infrastructure enhances urban resilience to extreme weather events.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

• The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
• The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
• The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
• Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Ukraine?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in Ukraine grew by 27.5% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $157bn to $200bn. During the same period, carbon emissions decreased by -0.28%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP grew 18%, while emissions decreased by -34.4%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in Ukraine over the past ten years was 1.7%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was -4.1%.