Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Turkmenistan

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does Turkmenistan produce?

Turkmenistan produced 0.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 189m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented an increase from 2020 by 2.3%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have increased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.85% and Turkmenistan has contributed 0.38% of global greenhouse emissions.

In 2021, Turkmenistan was the world’s 38th largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time Turkmenistan is the 39th largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in Turkmenistan – average household carbon footprint

The population of Turkmenistan is 6.12m. On a per capita basis, they produce 30.8 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 4th out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Turkmenistan?

Gases

32.8% of emissions in Turkmenistan came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 63.7% came from Methane (CH4), and 3.3% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the energy industry, producing 174m of GHG emissions, constituting 92.1% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were agriculture and industrial processes, producing 6.3% and 0.79% of total GHG in Turkmenistan.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the fugitive emissions industry, producing 114m of GHG emissions, constituting 60.5% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were electricity/heat and building, emitting 21m and 13.7m tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

• Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
• On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of Turkmenistan, LUCF had no impact on Turkmenistan’s emissions, decreasing their carbon footprint by 0 tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Turkmenistan in 2021 was 189m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is Turkmenistan to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

Turkmenistan scores 44.2 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘low vulnerability and low readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Low vulnerability and low readiness in Turkmenistan

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, Turkmenistan ranks in the bottom 5% group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with Turkmenistan posting a score of 0.234.

They show the greatest strength in governance aspects, while their performance in social aspects requires improvement.

• Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.
• Social readiness refers to the societal factors like inequality, education, and technology infrastructure that affect a country’s ability to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, Turkmenistan falls into the top 25% category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, Turkmenistan has a score of 0.349.

Their resilience is most notable in infrastructure areas, yet they face significant challenges in water.

• Infrastructure vulnerability refers to the weaknesses in the coastal protection, transportation, and energy systems, which are critical for building resilience against climate change. Coastal protection safeguards land and ports from rising sea levels and storms. Reliable transportation infrastructure is essential for corporate value chains and can be disrupted by extreme weather. Energy infrastructure resilience ensures a continuous supply of energy during natural disasters, maintaining economic stability.
• Water vulnerability refers to the availability and reliability of water resources, critical for economies and livelihoods. Efficient water use and resilient systems are essential as climate change affects precipitation patterns.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

• The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
• The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
• The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
• Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Turkmenistan?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkmenistan grew by 9.1% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $45.8bn to $50bn. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 2.3%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP grew 71.1%, while emissions increased by 7.8%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in Turkmenistan over the past ten years was 5.5%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was 0.75%.