Greenhouse Gas Emissions in New Zealand

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does New Zealand produce?

New Zealand produced 0.17% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 79.9m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented an increase from 2020 by 0.3%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have increased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.38% and New Zealand has contributed 0.21% of global greenhouse emissions.

In 2021, New Zealand was the world’s 61st largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time New Zealand is the 55th largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in New Zealand – average household carbon footprint

The population of New Zealand is 5.12m. On a per capita basis, they produce 15.6 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 18th out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkmenistan.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand?

Gases

39.3% of emissions in New Zealand came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 40.1% came from Methane (CH4), and 18.4% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the agriculture industry, producing 41.4m of GHG emissions, constituting 51.8% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were energy and waste, producing 40.4% and 5% of total GHG in New Zealand.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the transportation industry, producing 15m of GHG emissions, constituting 18.8% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were electricity/heat and manufacturing/construction, emitting 6.96m and 6.1m tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

• Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
• On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of New Zealand, LUCF had a positive impact on New Zealand’s emissions, decreasing their carbon footprint by 9.3m tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand in 2021 was 70.6m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is New Zealand to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

New Zealand scores 70.3 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘low vulnerability and high readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Low vulnerability and high readiness in New Zealand

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, New Zealand ranks in the top 5% group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with New Zealand posting a score of 0.701.

They show the greatest strength in governance aspects, while their performance in social aspects requires improvement.

• Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.
• Social readiness refers to the societal factors like inequality, education, and technology infrastructure that affect a country’s ability to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, New Zealand falls into the top 5% category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, New Zealand has a score of 0.294.

Their resilience is most notable in food areas, yet they face significant challenges in habitat.

• Food vulnerability refers to the sensitivity of agricultural yields and import dependencies, as well the capacity to adapt through agricultural resources. Innovations in agriculture can mitigate food insecurity risks due to climate change.
• Human habitat refers to the growth of cities and their capacity to withstand climate change impacts like floods and heatwaves. Improved infrastructure enhances urban resilience to extreme weather events.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

• The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
• The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
• The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
• Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in New Zealand?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in New Zealand grew by 20.2% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $213bn to $256bn. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 0.31%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP grew 51.9%, while emissions decreased by -0.06%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in New Zealand over the past ten years was 4.3%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was -0.01%.