Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Belize

What percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions does Belize produce?

Belize produced 0.01% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (the latest date with complete emissions data). This amounted to 1.56m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or MtCO₂e. These emissions represented an increase from 2020 by 3.1%.

In the period from 1990 to 2021 their emissions have decreased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.5% and Belize has contributed 0.01% of global greenhouse emissions.

In 2021, Belize was the world’s 169th largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters in the same period were China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil.

When looking at emissions over time Belize is the 161st largest emitter since 1990.

Emissions per capita in Belize – average household carbon footprint

The population of Belize is 405k. On a per capita basis, they produce 3.9 tonnes of CO2e per person, placing them 108th out of 191 on emissions produced per capita. The biggest per capita emitters are Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkmenistan.

What is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Belize?

Gases

43.1% of emissions in Belize came from Carbon Dioxide (CO2), 32.8% came from Methane (CH4), and 13% came from Nitrous Oxide (N2O).

Sectors

The sector that produced the most emissions in 2021 was the land-use change and forestry industry, producing 5.24m of GHG emissions, constituting 336% of total.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were energy and agriculture, producing 49.3% and 23.3% of total GHG in Belize.

Energy

The industry that produced the most energy related emissions was the transportation industry, producing 470k of GHG emissions, constituting 30.2% of total emissions.

The second and third largest emitting sectors were fugitive emissions and building, emitting 97k and 83k tonnes of GHG each.

Land Use Change and Forestry

Land use change and forestry (LUCF), such as deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural or urban areas, can have a significant impact on carbon emissions.

• Trees and other vegetation absorb and store carbon through the process of photosynthesis, and when they are cut down or burned, that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation and other forms of land use change can also reduce the ability of ecosystems to absorb and store carbon in the future. Additionally, the conversion of land for agriculture or urban development can lead to the release of carbon stored in the soil.
• On the other hand, sustainable forestry practices, such as reforestation and afforestation, can help to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in trees and other vegetation.

In the case of Belize, LUCF had a negative impact on Belize’s emissions, increasing their carbon footprint by 5.24m tonnes.

After accounting for land use change and forestry, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Belize in 2021 was 6.8m metric tonnes.

How vulnerable is Belize to the impact of climate change?

The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index

The ND-GAIN Index measures countries’ vulnerability to global challenges, including climate change, and their readiness to improve resilience.

Belize scores 43.9 on the ND-Gain Index and is classified in the ‘high vulnerability and low readiness’ category of climate change preparedness.

The index aims to assist businesses, governments, and communities in prioritising investments for a more efficient response to global shifts.

It is measured by combining two main components:

1. Vulnerability: This evaluates a country’s vulnerability to environmental risks and its ability to adapt. It considers health, food and water availability, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to environmental challenges.
2. Readiness: This measures how well a country can leverage investments to mitigate climate change. It considers economic stability, governance, technology, and infrastructure. A higher score means a country is better prepared to implement resilience strategies.

This ranking helps identify areas where resources and adaptation strategies can be most effectively directed to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

By combining these dimensions, the index provides a comprehensive approach to measuring countries’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

High vulnerability and low readiness in Belize

In terms of readiness to adapt to climate change, Belize ranks in the above average group. Globally, the average readiness score is 0.424, with Belize posting a score of 0.333.

They show the greatest strength in governance aspects, while their performance in social aspects requires improvement.

• Governance readiness refers to the political, legal, and regulatory aspects influencing a country’s adaptation to climate change, including stability, corruption control, and law enforcement.
• Social readiness refers to the societal factors like inequality, education, and technology infrastructure that affect a country’s ability to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Regarding vulnerability to climate change, Belize falls into the above average category. Compared to the global average vulnerability score of 0.431, Belize has a score of 0.455.

Their resilience is most notable in water areas, yet they face significant challenges in ecosystems.

• Water vulnerability refers to the availability and reliability of water resources, critical for economies and livelihoods. Efficient water use and resilient systems are essential as climate change affects precipitation patterns.
• Ecosystem services refers to the natural capital and resources foundational to economies and societies. Climate change-induced shifts in geoclimes stress ecosystems, highlighting the need for adaptive responses.

The formula to calculate the ND-GAIN Index is

GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50GAIN Index=(Readiness Indicators−Vulnerability Indicators+1)×50

In this formula:

• The Readiness Indicators are measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where a higher score means that the readiness is better.
• The Vulnerability Indicators are also measured on a scale of 0 to 1, but a lower score indicates better vulnerability in this case. 
• The difference between the Readiness and Vulnerability scores is calculated and then incremented by 1. 
• Finally, the result is multiplied by 50 to convert the GAIN Index score to a range of 0-100, where a higher score means the situation is better.

Is there a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Belize?

In 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) in Belize grew by 18.4% from the previous year, with the economy moving from $2.05bn to $2.42bn. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 3.1%. Over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2021, GDP grew 33.3%, while emissions increased by 2%.

To put this into context, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP in Belize over the past ten years was 2.9%, and the CAGR for greenhouse gas emissions was 1.8%.